Econometric and Fundamental Analysis of Elections in India

2007
Political boundaries and voting patterns - Madhya Pradesha nd Chhattisgarh
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Paper
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr301.pdf

2006
Incumbency and Parliament Elections in India
http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19420/1/MPRA_paper_19420.pdf


1999

Surjit S Bhalla's (Oxus Research & Investments) econometric model

Of the total number of elections for which data has been fitted into the econometric model, the model got 20 elections right. Of the 18 state elections, they got it right in 15 cases. Last November, during the assembly polls, Bhalla's model predicted a 13.5 per cent swing in favour of the Congress -- of which 9.1 per cent was due to the sharp rise in prices, especially onions, during the previous few months -- while the actual swing was 14.9 per cent.

Using economic indicators since 1977, Bhalla finds a very good correlation between GDP growth, inflation patterns and vote share. Bhalla's analyses shows, for instance, that whenever the Congress has been in power a one per cent hike in economic growth results in its vote share increasing by 1.7 per cent. Similarly, a one per cent hike in inflation rates makes its vote share fall 1.3 per cent.

http://expressindia.indianexpress.com/ie/daily/19990912/ibu12041p.html