Thursday, March 8, 2012

INDUSTRY ANALYSIS AND VALUATION - Infrastructure - INDIA

Learning Assignment

Information on the industry is to be posted by Bhagyashri Bhide and Naresh Dhingra




 

 

 

 

AIMR FORMAT

 
Assocation of Investment Management and Research (now CFA institute) gave  the following format some time back for providing industry analysis.
 
 

Industry Classification


The construction industry comprises establishments that are primarily engaged in the construction of buildings or engineering projects (e.g., highways and utility systems). This may include new work, additions, alterations, or maintenance and repairs. The construction industry is divided into three major sectors.
· The first is the construction of buildings (both residential and nonresidential).
· The second involves heavy and civil engineering construction such as utility systems , land subdivision, and highways, streets, and bridges. Firms in these first two sectors are primarily engaged in contracts that include responsibility for all aspects of individual projects and are commonly know as general contractors.
· The third major sector of the construction industry includes establishments in the specialty trades, which are primarily engaged in activities to produce a specific component (e.g. masonry, painting, and electrical work) of a project.
 

Life cycle position

The construction industry is the second largest industry of the country after agriculture. Construction activity is an integral part of a country’s infrastructure and industrial development. It includes hospitals, schools, townships, offices, houses and other buildings; urban infrastructure (including water supply, sewerage, drainage); highways, roads, ports, railways, airports; power systems; irrigation and agriculture systems; telecommunications etc.

It is in growth phase and offers massive development opportunities.

Business cycle

 CRISIL Research expects construction industry margins to remain stable in the medium term. The stability in margins emanates from the trend expected in the construction industry's turnover mix. The increasing share of high margin segments such as urban infrastructure and industrial segment in the turnover mix will mitigate the negative impact on margins caused by declining share of power segment.

External Factors


Technology

Government

The government has increased the outlay in key infrastructure sectors such as roads, urban infrastructure and irrigation.

􀁻 The budget allocation, under roads, led by National Highways Development Programme, has been increased by 19 per cent from Rs 108.67 billion in 2007-08 to Rs 129.66 billion in 2008-09. The allocation has increased at a much higher rate as compared to 9 per cent increase witnessed in 2007-08.

Social

The central assistance under Jawaharlal Nehru Urban Renewal Mission has also been increased by 25 percent - from Rs 54.82 billion in 2007-08 to Rs 68.66 billion in 2008-09.

Further, the annual outlay under the 'Accelerated Irrigation Benefit Programme' has been raised from Rs 110 billion to Rs 200 billion.

These increased allocations would augur well for construction companies in terms of healthy order book growth and higher revenues.

Demographic

Foreign

Total construction investments (infrastructure and industrial) are expected to grow from Rs 2,151 billion in the past 2 years (2005-06 to 2006-07) to Rs 3,034 billion over the next 2 years (2007-08 to 2008-09), recording a Trend Annual Growth Rate (TAGR) of 19 per cent. Industrial investments, led by oil and gas and metals, likely to grow at a TAGR of 36 per cent, will maintain the growth momentum of the industry. On the other hand, roads and urban infrastructure led by the National Highway Development Programme (NHDP) and Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JnNURM), will mainly fuel investments in the infrastructure sector.

 

Demand Analysis

End users

Real and Nominal Growth

Trends and Cyclical variation around trends

 

Supply Analysis


Last Price

Market Cap.
(Rs. cr.)

Net Profit
Total Assets
Jaiprakash Asso
65.15
7,712.46
610.00
12,832.28
Unitech
29.30
4,756.49
1,030.68
10,261.35
IRB Infra
108.85
3,617.78
-
1,375.26
IVRCL Infras
107.85
1,439.85
210.48
2,673.83
Nagarjuna Const
53.50
1,224.33
164.11
2,466.20
Hind Constr
44.05
1,128.78
108.77
2,848.92
Patel Eng
158.40
945.00
147.61
1,502.06
Gammon Infra
57.90
836.94
-
500.08
Era Infra Eng
68.05
786.10
121.37
1,936.70
Simplex Infra
145.75
721.06
90.08
1,502.45

Degree of Concentration

Ease of entry

Industry capacity


 

Profitability

CRISIL Research estimates suggest that these allocations would translate into construction investments of Rs 290.86 billion in roads, urban infrastructure and irrigation segments.

Supply/Demand Analysis

During the 9 months ended December 2007, construction companies have witnessed robust growth in revenues, accompanied by healthy growth in margins. The topline grew by 46 per cent on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis guided by strong order book positions across construction companies. Operating margins improved by 200 basis points to close at 11 per cent, while net margins remained stable at 6 per cent. CRISIL Research expects the industry to continue delivering healthy growth on the back of increased thrust on investments and higher operating efficiencies.

Cost Factors

Pricing

Total construction investments (infrastructure and industrial) are expected to grow from Rs 2,151 billion in the past 2 years (2005-06 to 2006-07) to Rs 3,034 billion over the next 2 years (2007-08 to 2008-09), recording a Trend Annual Growth Rate (TAGR) of 19 per cent. Industrial investments, led by oil and gas and metals, likely to grow at a TAGR of 36 per cent, will maintain the growth momentum of the industry. On the other hand, roads and urban infrastructure led by the National Highway Development Programme (NHDP) and Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JnNURM), will mainly fuel investments in the infrastructure sector.

 Prowess Study


Number of Companies listed on BSE

A L Sudershan Construction Co. Ltd.

Mackintosh Burn Ltd.

Ahmedabad Ring Road Infrastructure Ltd.

Madhucon Projects Ltd.

Ahmedabad-Vadodara Expressway Co. Ltd.

Mahakali Flyover Co. Ltd.

Ashoka Buildcon Ltd.

Marg Ltd.

Asian Techs Ltd.

Maytas Infra Ltd.

Atlanta Ltd.

Mumbai Nasik Expressway Ltd.

Aurangabad City Integrated Road Devp. Ltd.

Nagarjuna Construction Co. Ltd.

Bhagheeratha Engineering Ltd.

Nagpur City Integrated Road Devp. Ltd.

C & C Constructions Ltd.

Nandi Engineering Ltd.

C & C Projects Ltd.

Nandi Infrastructure Corridor Enterprises Ltd.

C C A P Ltd.

Nandurbar City Integrated Road Devp. Ltd.

Continental Construction Ltd.

Nyse Infrastructure Pvt. Ltd.

D S C-Vicon Ventures Pvt. Ltd.

P B A Infrastructure Ltd.

D S Constructions Ltd.

Patel Engineering Ltd.

Delhi Gurgaon Super Connectivity Ltd.

Pondicherry - Tindivanam Tollway Ltd.

Devi Enterprises Ltd.

Progressive Constructions Ltd.

East Coast Constructions & Inds. Ltd.

Pune City Integrated Road Devp. Ltd.

G M R Ambala Chandigarh Expressways Pvt. Ltd.

Rajahmundry Expressway Ltd.

G M R Jadcherla Expressways Pvt. Ltd.

Rajasthan State Road Devp. & Construction Corpn. Ltd.

G M R Pochanpalli Expressways Pvt. Ltd.

Rewa Tollway Pvt. Ltd.

G M R Tambaram-Tindivanam Expressways Pvt. Ltd.

Roads & Bridges Devp. Corpn. Of Kerala Ltd.

Gammon India Ltd.

Roman Tarmat Ltd.

Gammon Infrastructure Projects Ltd.

S M S Infrastructure Ltd.

Gannon Dunkerley & Co. Ltd.

S V E C Constructions Ltd.

Gayatri Projects Ltd.

Sadbhav Engineering Ltd.

Harish Chandra (India) Ltd.

Sew Constructions Ltd.

Hindustan Construction Co. Ltd.

Shriram Engineering Construction Co. Ltd.

I J M (India) Infrastructure Ltd.

Simplex Infrastructures Ltd.

I R B Infrastructure Developers Ltd.

Simplex Projects Ltd.

I T D Cementation India Ltd.

Soma Enterprise Ltd.

I T Expressway Ltd.

Sree Sella Infrastructure & Projects Ltd.

I V R C L Infrastructures & Projects Ltd.

Subhash Projects & Mktg. Ltd.

J Kumar Infraprojects Ltd.

Supreme Infrastructure India Ltd.

J M C Projects (India) Ltd.

Swarnandhra Roadcare Pvt. Ltd.

Jaiprakash Associates Ltd.

T C I Infrastructure Finance Ltd.

Jaiprakash Industries Ltd. [Merged]

Tantia Constructions Ltd.

Jog Engineering Ltd.

Techni Bharathi Ltd.

K M C Constructions Ltd.

Transstroy (India) Ltd.

K N R Constructions Ltd.

U I C Infrastructure India Pvt. Ltd.

Kaushalya Infrastructure Devp. Corpn. Ltd.

U P State Bridge Corp Ltd.

Kerala State Construction Corpn. Ltd.

Unity Infraprojects Ltd.

Keti Constructions (India) Ltd.

Valecha Engineering Ltd.

Lanco Infratech Ltd.

Vijay M Mistry Construction Pvt. Ltd.

Vizag Seaport Ltd.

Viramgam-Mahesana Project Ltd.


Market Cap, Book value and PE of Industry (88 companies) last 10 year

 

 

Rs. Crore

Rs. Crore

Rs. Crore

Times

 

Traded Volume

Market Cap

BookValue

PE

Year

Infrastructural construction

Infrastructural construction

Infrastructural construction

Infrastructural construction

Dec-99

1.13

1922.52

584.6

15.61

Dec-00

0.47

1197.41

758.83

8.13

Dec-01

0.2

957.97

858.88

3.97

Dec-02

0.3

1235.82

1043.17

3.92

Dec-03

12.64

3658.39

1163.82

13.63

Dec-04

9.5

9579.48

2856.35

19.96

Dec-05

99.6

22098.15

3921.33

25.14

Dec-06

202.25

49024.59

10098.8

48.9

Dec-07

251.61

123355.66

15544.85

65.87

Dec-08

96.29

29588.57

20754.65

11.72

 

Income, Sales, PAT, Current Ratio and Debt Equity Ratio of Industry (88 companies) last 10 years


 

Rs. Crore

Rs. Crore

Rs. Crore

Times

Times

 

Income

 Sales

PAT

 Current ratio

 Debt equity ratio

Year

Infrastructural construction

Infrastructural construction

Infrastructural construction

Infrastructural construction

Infrastructural construction

Dec-01

5198.8

4877.16

122.01

1.36

2.85

Dec-02

7932.14

7489.7

183.81

1.34

3.13

Dec-03

5699.93

5342.63

104.62

1.28

3.28

Dec-04

7130.77

6725.6

279.12

1.29

2.87

Dec-05

11238.19

10577.34

645

1.68

2.14

Dec-06

17315.35

15677.43

1378.31

1.93

1.96

Dec-07

25416.53

22855.85

1706.36

1.66

1.68

Dec-08

33226.37

30731.84

2584.72

1.66

1.68


I ask my students to follow the format and prepare the analysis for the following industries as a part of their Investment Analysis or Security Analysis Course.
 
I presented a conference paper and published a journal article on the theme independent equity research from business schools. In that paper I argued that business schools can publish the equity research reports being prepared by their students on their web sites. No doubt disclaimer is there that it is a learning exercise only and not a professional output. The benefit of such academic institute reports will be that they will be more close to rigorous text book methods than the opportunistic reports from sellside companies.
 
I plan to publish the reports of my students on knol demonstrating my commitment to the suggestion that I have made.

  http://knol.google.com/k / industry-analysis-and-valuation-infrastructure-india
Knol Number 950

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